In the intricate political chessboard of Oyo State politics, the past is never far behind. The 2019 governorship election still lingers like a cautionary tale in hearts of many political watchers and observers not for the opposition, but for the then-ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which lost grip of power despite boasting the power and machinery of incumbency.
Today, Governor Seyi Makinde and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) risk walking down the same path if they fail to learn from the political dynamics and internal intrigues that cost the APC its dominance In the state.
The fall of APC in Oyo State was not triggered by an overwhelming PDP wave alone; rather, it was the consequence of internal sabotage, bruised egos, and a failure of succession plan and management.
Then-Governor, Abiola Ajimobi, though towering high in political influence and achievements, failed to build consensus around a successor with mass appeal at an early stage to create ample room for reconciliation and harmonization of political interests before it was too late.
His late hour choice, Adebayo Adelabu, was perceived by many within the party as a technocrat parachuted into politics without grassroots support or political seasoning.
The result however, was a fragmented APC, with aggrieved leaders forming separate alliances with the opposition, most notably the coalition that ultimately ushered Governor Makinde into Agodi Government House.
Makinde, should know better by now than to take power for granted with the delay in unveiling his successor to the ruling party’s hierarchy. Because as the clock ticks toward 2027, the same factors that unraveled the APC’s dominance in 2019 are quietly gathering around the PDP if deliberate actions and moves were not made.
As of now, there is no clear succession narrative the party could start to build around or champion in the media for public appeal, no anointed heir yet by a governor who has been adjudged the reincarnation of the late sage, Pa Obafemi Awolowo, no visible strategy to carry the party beyond Makinde’s tenure yet, yet, it’s just two years left into 2027 and one year left in the real political sense.
Instead, whispers of rivalry and silent competition among PDP stalwarts with vested interests and political aspirations reverberate the same ominous notes that heralded APC’s downfall in 2019.
Governor Makinde must as a matter of political exigence, unveil his preferred successor to prevent governorship aspirants from political exploitation by professional politicians without any known second address and are quick to align with “All Government in Power” (AGIP).
Even though it is not official yet, political pointers and feelers from the APC hierarchies especially from the Abuja, all tilt towards the Minister of Power and former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Chief Adebayo Adelabu, otherwise called ‘Penkelemes’. As grumpy as this may sound in the ears of members of the opposition and the eventual crisis it may birth within the party, one thing is certain, the APC in Oyo state will be able to put its house in order and reconcile warring fractions at an early stage before it’s too late.
Suffice to say that If Makinde fails to give political visibility to his intended successor early enough for genuine reconciliation to take place before the political landscape hits its peak, whoever that may be, the PDP risks being undone by the same internal disunity and power tussles that denied APC the Agodi Government House in 2019.
Already, there are signs of quiet maneuvering within the party. Ambitious figures, political leaders, who have either been schemed out of things or relegated, are building parallel structures while waiting to go public with their secret political moves ahead of 2027. Without a firm hand and a unifying vision, the PDP could head into the next election cycle as a house divided. And like I always say, “it’s better to fight and settle your quarrel inside the palace than outside the palace gate”.
Waiting until the eleventh hour to name a successor, who many party stakeholders may yet struggle to fully align with, could fracture the PDP, especially in a state where political ambition is high and loyalty is often fluid. A delayed announcement creates a breeding ground for suspicion, internal sabotage, and last-minute defections.
By making his preferred successor known early, Makinde and the PDP can initiate the reconciliation mechanism through a well coordinated process among stakeholders. This early move allows enough time for dialogues, negotiations, and compromises to avoid factional splinters. It also gives ample opportunity to manage discontent, anger, frustration, and bickering among aspirants who may be disappointed but willing to remain loyal for the greater good of the party.
Governance continuity is very critical for the Makinde led administration to achieve its medium and long-term goals as laid out in the Oyo state sustainable development agenda. Announcing a successor early enables the person to be embedded in current governance efforts, participate in decision-making via direct mentorship at the background, and also gain visibility with the electorate with whom Makinde still enjoys what is now termed “immense street credibility “.
The by-election in Saki west that PDP lost and the federal constituencies currently being firmly controlled by the APC should give both the PDP and Governor Makinde serious concern going into 2027.
Governor Makinde, as a matter of necessity and political experience must start to deliberately empower his political foot soldiers not just by mere appointments but making available to them resources to consolidate on his achievement to build strongholds in the grassroots across the state. By every means, the governor has demonstrated his administrative acumen, visionary leadership, and transformative foresight to build the Oyo state of our dreams but he must also be guided by the fact that most of these same politicians saying Yes sir to every word that emanate from him today could be in the media tomorrow with tantrums against him if PDP failed come 2027.
Moreover, the APC is not asleep. The party has spent the last four years rebuilding its base, studying the lessons of 2019, and repositioning itself with stronger internal alignment. If Makinde leaves a vacuum, the APC will gladly fill it, and this time, with lessons learned and knives well sharpened.
History has shown that political loyalty in Oyo is fluid, and sentiments shift very rapidly. Makinde must start shaping the post-Makinde PDP now, not just with his laudable policies and programs, but with a clear face and voice the public can rally behind after his tenure winds down. The Governor must not forget that power doesn’t transfer itself; it must be handed over strategically, deliberately, and visibly.
The intrigues that cost APC the 2019 election were not inevitable. They were the outcome of miscalculations, unchecked ambition, and poor succession planning. Governor Makinde would do well not to repeat those mistakes. Because in politics, history doesn’t just repeat itself, it punishes those who ignore it.
Henry Odeh writes from Ibadan, he is a Policy and Public Affairs analyst.