The 2027 governorship race is still two years away, yet its shadows already loom large around every political corners, and at the centre of this unfolding drama in Oyo state is Governor Seyi Makinde, the architect of what many now describe as the “PDAPC phenomenon” of 2023.
Today, as 2027 beckons at a ‘slow’ yet, fast speed, Makinde faces an intricate dilemma: who should wear the crown after him or better put, who succeeds him to carry on either his legacies or PDP dominance?
The choices before the governor are neither easy nor straightforward. They are reflections of complex political calculations, loyalty tests, ideological battles, geopolitical zonal agitations, religious considerations, and a haunting political precedent set in the last general election where Makinde had a sweeping victory never recorded in Oyo’s electoral history.
To really understand the present dilemma, one must revisit the highly consequential 2023 presidential election. Governor Seyi Makinde, a sitting governor elected under the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), shocked the nation when he aligned, informally but unmistakably with the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
His decision was rooted in the G5 rebellion against the PDP national leadership, particularly over zoning and the spirit of equity, fairness, and justice.
Makinde, along with his fellow G5 governors, believed the PDP betrayed its own rotational power agreement by fielding another northern presidential candidate after eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner.
This perceived injustice gave rise to a subtle, if controversial, political dance: supporting Tinubu, a Yoruba man from the Southwest like Makinde, while publicly retaining a PDP identity. This was the moment the phrase “PDAPC” — a hybrid of PDP and APC gained notoriety in the political lexicon of Oyo State.
Makinde’s bold gamble paid off. Tinubu won, and Makinde was returned for a second term in office in a PDP-dominated state, despite his open romance with the APC presidential candidate. This unique positioning made Makinde a power broker across party lines, a man who could bend political orthodoxy to his will.
As 2027 approaches, Governor Makinde stands at a critical juncture; who should he endorse as his successor? Should he lean towards a technocrat, a tested bureaucrat with professional credentials but little grassroots appeal? Or does he back a grassroots politician with deep political capital and street credibility, but possibly lacking in administrative finesse?
Worse still, the governor is under immense pressure from multiple political quarters, including the PDP loyalists he once distanced himself from during the infamous 2023 presidential election debacle, the APC leaders he courted during the presidential elections, and new political forces trying to chart independent courses. This multi-directional pressure makes the crown a precarious one to bestow.
It is safe to say that governor Makinde himself is the prototype of a technocrat-turned-politician, a successful engineer who translated private sector discipline into public governance. It’s therefore no surprise that he may be more comfortable with someone from that mould. Such a successor would likely sustain the Makinde legacy in terms of infrastructure development, digital governance, and civil service reform.
However, this choice carries risks. Technocrats often lack the gritty political structure and street mobilization capacity required to win elections in Nigeria, especially in a complex political terrain like Oyo State. We must get anything connected herewith, twisted for that matter.
Grassroots politicians are adept at connecting with the electorate, they understand the language of the streets, the intricacies of local structures, and have the loyalty of political foot soldiers. They are usually party men through and through.
But therein lies another danger: grassroots politicians, especially those not ideologically aligned with Makinde’s vision or legacy but still masquerading as loyalists in government, might dismantle his policies or pivot Oyo’s developmental direction in favour of populist appeasement or political patronage. Worse, they may not owe their loyalty to him but their bank accounts.
The PDP in Oyo is still grappling with internal divisions that date back to the G5 crisis. Many PDP stakeholders have not forgotten Makinde’s political heresy in 2023. For them, the question is not just who the governor endorses but from where, is he still with the PDP in spirit, or will he covertly support an APC candidate again personal reasons after office?
If Makinde decides to back a successor outside of the PDP framework, especially one who has roots or alliances with the APC, it could lead to a major implosion within the party. On the other hand, if he plays strictly within the PDP fold, he risks losing the broader political alliances that have propped up his influence post-2023, especially those who have openly identified with him and even defected into the PDP fold officially.
Beyond personality and party is the burning issue of geopolitical rotation. The Oyo Federal Constituency and Oke-ogun zones have begun a strong campaign for rotational justice, arguing that they’ve long been excluded from the governorship slot. Groups like the Oyo Heritage Assembly have demanded that 2027 be the turn of Oyo zone.
Makinde, who is from Ibadan, now faces a moral and political dilemma: should he support zoning to foster equity, or choose based on competence and loyalty?
Any misstep in this sensitive area could cost the PDP dearly in 2027, especially if aggrieved blocs join forces with rival parties to challenge the PDP candidate. And the end result may be brutal for the now ruling party in the state. APC, having been out of power for six years and certainly will be for eight years, must have learned certain lessons the hard way. The opposition party’s return to power may keep PDP out of the Agodi Government House for a very long time because the party would have returned with a very sharp political knife.
Makinde’s biggest legacy challenge lies not in what he has built physically or institutions but in what he builds politically. The echoes of 2023, that unusual but effective PDAPC alignment continue to reverberate through Oyo’s political corridors. While it delivered short-term gains, it created a long-term ideological vacuum. The governor now finds himself caught between opposing political instincts: Loyalty vs. Pragmatism, Continuity vs. Inclusiveness, and Ideology vs. Electability.
In a state where politics is as culturally nuanced as it is structurally volatile, the decision will require not just intelligence but foresight, negotiation, and perhaps, another round of political innovation. Like 2023, it may take another unconventional alliance, or a bold, singular decision, to determine who the next landlord of Agodi Government House will be.
However, Governor Makinde has two more years to navigate this tightrope, but the clock is ticking. The echoes of 2023, though now faint, still reverberate. They serve as both a reminder of his political ingenuity and a warning of the consequences of strategic miscalculations.
His choice of successor could either solidify his legacy as a transformational leader who redefined political boundaries, or unravel his accomplishments under the weight of poor succession planning.
Whatever path he chooses, one thing is certain: in Oyo 2027, the crown will not just fit a head; it must fit a legacy worthy of not only protection but sustained.