Every administration eventually hits that uncomfortable moment or at most finds itself at that juncture when the strength of the government stops depending on policy documents and starts resting squarely on the people running the system. Oyo state is right there at that point.
In this instance, it is worthy of note that some commissioners are genuinely working very hard on daily basis while some are just managing. And quite a few are surviving almost entirely on the governor’s goodwill rather than their own political weight or public credibility.
That imbalance is becoming more obvious as 2027 inches closer and with it, the delicate fight to shape the succession conversation.
Let’s be honest. The current cabinet has enjoyed something unusual: a governor whose personal reputation often covers their shortcomings. He has carried the political burden for ministries that have not even earned deep trust on their own.
Instead of commissioners helping lift the administration’s image, many of them lean heavily on the governor’s shoulders, quietly benefiting from the perception that “the governor will handle it.”
Well, that usually works for a while, until it doesn’t anymore, especially when opposition forces are busy waiting for any available opportunity to pound on the administration.
A government that wants to walk confidently into an election cycle in a political landscape heavily monetized, especially one juggling governance and succession battles, cannot afford to have a cabinet where the governor is the only one with real political capital.
A team that depends on one person’s goodwill is not a team. It’s often time a liability waiting to mature. And in the world of politics, some unpleasant realities are simply not reversible. The naive must dance to the music of their own political naivety.
Politics in Oyo state, and most likely other parts of Nigeria, always has a way of circling back to familiar patterns. At first the signs may appear faint but a quiet meeting somewhere in Bodija, handshake between two people who once traded barbs in Molete, a sudden warmth between camps that spent years at opposite ends of the political divide in Oke-ogun, all sharpen the same old pattern into a movement.
That momeswirl approaching again and Governor Seyi Makinde, who’s seat is the ultimate price, finds himself at the center of a landscape that is gently but unmistakably realigning again.
Since 2019, Makinde has no doubt enjoyed a kind of goodwill, not political sympathy, that many politicians struggle to build. This has carried him through intense moments and given him a level of trust that doesn’t come cheaply in this part of the country. Even critics, when they speak, often acknowledge that the governor means well and tries to keep the state on a steady path sustainable economic trajectory.
But goodwill has its limits. It helps you open doors. It convinces people to listen. Yet politics, especially the type that determines who controls Oyo as 2027 draws near, demands much more than that. It demands political structure, strong alliances that actually hold, and a ground game that can stand firm when political activities begin to grow more intense.
Even political sympathy drawn from a people who once keyed into the “I don’t have a godfather, God and you people, are my godfathers” won’t convince last too long especially when their are no clear indications or intentional efforts to woo strong opposition actors into your fold. Bear in mind that being a nice guy isn’t enough, the electorate often depend on political mobilization for massive turnout on election day.
If strong political actors and grassroots mobilizers are lacking in your camp, chances are that you risk such election to your opponents who have fortified their camp via alignment and realignment. Don’t forget that “the fact that a person doesn’t eat lion for food doesn’t mean equal reciprocity, a lion will not spare anymore on its path.
This is where the danger lies: when too many commissioners survive on the governor’s political image rather than using personal grassroots connection in contributing to it, the governor’s goodwill becomes overstretched. His popularity becomes a shared welfare fund that everyone spends but few replenish. It is therefore, not sustainable.
In politics, goodwill is a renewable resource only when others you surround yourself with help you renew it. Allies who survive on your goodwill without opening up the door for more entry should be regarded as political parasites. After all, politics is entirely a game of numbers, and when your numbers are not adding up in the face of a raging opposition, it’ll amount to a foolhardy to not go back to your drawing board to restrategize.
When a leader’s goodwill begins to stretch too far, opposition parties smell it before the public does. They begin testing narratives, probing weaknesses, and positioning themselves for the moment the government slips from defensive to reactive mode. The problem here is that, those who are politically empty won’t have any problem with the status quo, opinions of those who may have independent ideas on way forward may be suppressed, while those who may dare to disagree with status quo may be kicked away from the table.
This is especially risky in a pre-election period like this where the governor is expected to not only govern but also quietly shape who might succeed him. A governor cannot fight on two fronts; governance and succession, while dragging a politically unpopular cabinet members on his shoulders behind him.
He actually needs commissioners who can stand on their own and win the hearts of the people, at least at their various communities and localities without first mentioning Seyi Makinde, cabinet members who own their public space and have built pockets of goodwill that feed back into the administration.
When a cabinet reshuffle is delayed for too long, three things happen.
Firstly, commissioners begin assuming they are politically safe, even when their public relevance is thin or fast eroding.
Secondly, local actors such as councillors, LG and ward leaders, party administrators, all start reading the silence as weakness. They become bolder in their complacency. Even when they should be busy working to strengthen the party, they’re busy fighting themselves based on greed, selfish interests and the desire to keep others away from the ‘pot of soup’.
Third, the public stops separating individual performance from the governor’s brand. Every ministry’s failure becomes “the governor’s failure,” because very few commissioner have the political stature to absorb shock or correct the narrative on their own. This is how political wear and tear begins.
A timely reshuffle does more than fix poor performance. It recalibrates the political balance around the governor. It puts strong, credible faces in sensitive ministries. It frees the governor from being the sole public defender of everything. And it tells party structures that the administration is still alive, alert and intentional.
People often underestimate how much a fresh cabinet can change the political atmosphere. New commissioners with their own networks, their own legitimacy, grassroots connections, and their own political capital can expand the administration’s reach in term of goodwill.
They can help soften the succession conversation by becoming stabilizers rather than passengers. And they can also recharge the public’s confidence in the government’s direction.
Alternatively, letting the current imbalance stretch further clearly carries a real political consequence. It risks exhausting the governor’s goodwill too early, handing critics easy points and making the build-up to 2027 more complicated for the ruling party than it needs to be.
It’s important to note that Oyo doesn’t need a dramatic purge. It needs a smart, honest reshuffle that realigns the cabinet with the political reality of the moment. One that replaces passive hands with energetic ones, moves the capable people into roles where they can shine, and gives the governor space to conserve his political strength for the battles that actually lies ahead.
There is clearly a quiet but deliberate effort among opposition forces to realign, this is expected considering the political period it is. People who once couldn’t sit in the same room without walking out are starting to shake hands and seeing together walking side by side.
Some of the governor’s one-time allies have been drifting to the edges, watching the field with new interest. Within the PDP itself, the temperature is not as settled as it appears on the surface, many are merely protecting their pot of soup as political parasites on the governor’s goodwill. And smaller political groups, often dismissed as lightweight, are also, suddenly being courted because symbolism matters when elections draw close.
All of this puts Makinde in a complicated position. He is balancing the demands of governance, the need to keep his party from fragmenting, and the sensitive task of shaping a succession plan that doesn’t fracture the state’s political equilibrium. Those three ambitions rarely travel smoothly together. Strengthening one often unsettles another.
The fact that a big part of the challenge is that many of the governor’s appointees and key supporters have leaned almost entirely on his reputation can not be overemphasized. Their public standing is tied to him, not to any political weight they have built on their own. And this can only work for as long as he is in office, but it leaves the overall structure to win election delicate.
Goodwill, no matter how deep, cannot by itself stop a determined opposition actors who have found a common purpose in unity against a perceived common enemy. History has shown a possible outcome of such situation in 2015 during the presidential election. When former rivals start meeting, it usually means they have agreed that the alternative, which is staying divided, is worse for them than coming together.
Still, Makinde is not without leverage. His connection to ordinary people remains a powerful asset. His ability to calm political storms has won him respect in unexpected places and circumstances. This is what many now termed “Makinde’s street credibility” but none of that will be enough if it stands alone.
To avoid walking into a tough 2027, he will need to convert his goodwill into something more politically grounded. He will need people who can win their own local government areas and wards without calling his name first. He will have to resolve the quiet grievances within his party before they harden into something less manageable. And he will need to adjust his succession strategy if the political temperature keeps rising.
For now, the people people of Oyo state, political, civil servants, and even the media stakeholders are watching. The governor still has public trust on his side, but trust is like a cushion, use the same spot long enough and it fades out.
So, is Makinde’s goodwill enough to counter the growing realignment in the opposition? Certainly not by itself. A governor’s goodwill is precious. It shouldn’t be the only thing holding an entire government together. And if there was ever a time to redistribute that weight before it becomes a burden, it’s now.
Goodwill is a fine place to start as it was in 2019 but what was applicable in some seven or eight years ago may not be in 2027 because elections are won by political structures, strong alliances and strategy. And those who understand this are already moving their pieces.