Since assuming office in 2019, Governor Seyi Makinde has clearly emerged as a political force in not just Oyo State and the south west region but across the entire nation.
This is so because of the way and manner he has continued to skillfully navigate the turbulent waters of party politics, governance, and public perception.
Under his leadership, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Oyo has retained a unique stronghold, one that has defied the usual trend of strong opposition figures, especially from the main opposition defecting to the ruling party; a common feature in Nigeria’s volatile political landscape that is usually expected considering the unending accomplishments to the credit of the governor.
While the PDP’s internal machinery in Oyo State continues to find its feet in the face of internal challenges, Governor Makinde’s personal achievements and soaring popularity have significantly shielded the inefficiencies of the party, allowing it to operate without significant external threat or internal implosion.
Governor Makinde’s track record in governance, particularly in infrastructure development, education, security, health care, agribusiness, tourism, and fiscal transparency have earned him broad acclaim across different political spectrum.
His people-centered policies, such as the free and qualitative education, timely payment of salaries, and massive road infrastructure projects amongst others across the state, have endeared him to many citizens across party lines.
These achievements have not only bolstered his image but have inadvertently insulated or better put, protected the PDP from criticism typically targeted at ruling parties.
As a result, the party continues to ride on his glowing public image with many residents distinguishing Makinde the individual from PDP the institution.
Historically, Oyo PDP has maintained strong ward-level structures that linked it to voters across the state’s 33 local government areas. These units were central to the party’s success in the pre-2019 period.
If anything, the 2023 elections revealed some of these daunting facts which may be subject to further debate since divergence remains the spice of public discuss. While Governor Makinde won re-election landslide in such an unprecedented way, clinching victory at almost the entire 33 local government areas, it appears more a testament to his personal popularity than a reflection of the ruling party’s popularity.
Many, especially politicians may disagree with this assertion but a quick comparative analysis of the national Assembly and Governorship elections and the pattern of voting in Oyo state will provide clarity to any contrary view. The opposition party currently controls the three senatorial districts and 10 out of the 14 Federal House of representatives seats at the national assembly.
It was even worse that despite being the ruling party, the PDP could not claim victory in the by-election held in Saki East/West state constituency. The ruling party, if not distracted by the protection it enjoys from Makinde’s soaring reputation and achievements in the eyes of the public and opposition parties, should have assembled a ‘coded’ team of political emissaries across all the geopolitical zones to woo political heavyweights into its fold.
For instance, at the national level, despite APC being the ruling party with firm control of both government and political matters, the party has continued to deplete camps and political strongholds of the opposition including the PDP across regions and states.
In my view as a political analyst, that’s a sign of a very serious political party that is looking beyond just being in government or winning the 2027 presidential election.
In public discourse, the Oyo state PDP’s inefficiencies, ranging from internal wrangling, lack of success in winning political bigwigs in the opposition party into its fold, and it’s inability to woo back some of its aggrieved leaders such as former Ogbomosho born female federal lawmaker and ex Majority Leader of the House, Ibadan born former Minister of State for FCT, Chief Mrs. Jumoke Akinjide, Alhaji Bisi Olopoeyan, to mention but a few, are often overlooked or have been softened due to the Makinde’s individual performance that is incontrovertible.
In a political culture where defecting to the ruling party is often seen as a strategic move for political survival and relevance, the absence of notable defections from opposition parties into the Oyo PDP since 2019 is noteworthy and should form a serious concern for all PDP stalwarts and members in the state, especially as the party begins to prepare to transition into the post Makinde era.
Typically, ruling parties attract defectors who seek appointments, political relevance at any level, protection from probe, or access to state political machinery but the unique situation in Oyo state has become a topical subject among political observers. And at this point, it is not just pertinent but expedient for the PDP to face the fact of separating Makinde’s soaring popularity from the party real strength to enable the PDP make objective appraisal of its strength and weakness before 2027 arrives.
Some of the assumptions arising from this abnormal situation as analyzed by political observers have been summarized as follows;
1. Governor Makinde has often been described as running a one-man show within the PDP being the overall leader of the party in the state. The governor’s reliance on a technocratic style of governance and his cautious approach to internal party politics have seemingly made it difficult for traditional politicians, especially those from opposition camps, to integrate or find relevance within the PDP framework.
2. The Oyo PDP has shown signs of structural weakness, often plagued by leadership tussles at the local government and ineffective grassroots organization. For potential defectors, especially those from entrenched opposition parties like the All Progressives Congress (APC), the PDP offers little incentive in terms of internal strategic growth.
3. The APC and other opposition parties in the state have opted to bide their time, perhaps expecting cracks within the PDP ahead of 2027 to widen its base. The opposition may also be banking on Makinde’s eventual exit from office to trigger a collapse in the PDP’s popularity, believing that without his personal appeal to the public, the party might crumble under its own weight.
4. In a state where over 60% of the voting population is under the age of 35, the PDP in Oyo has failed to leverage on this numbers to create social media platforms for genuine youth inclusion. Most ward executives and mobilizers remain elderly, disconnected from the digital-savvy, economically frustrated young voters who now form the electoral majority.
This failure may cost the party support, as seen in the growing popularity of opposition from opposition in places like Ogbomosho, Oyo, Saki and some parts of Oke-ogun as well as the cosmopolitan state capital, Ibadan.
Also, digital platforms remain one of the strongest mass mobilization tool in the current age and time yet underutilized by the Oyo PDP. Apart from periodic social media posts during election campaigns, and response to opposition’s criticism of the present government, there is no sustained digital strategy for youth engagement, political education, or policy advocacy to hold down the social media space for narrative control.
Yet these issues rarely make headlines or dominate political discourse, largely due to the governor’s strategic communication through the efficiency of his media unit as well as his crisis management skills.
Governor Makinde has also managed to position himself as a bridge between traditional politics and modern governance and this is a fact nobody can take away from him.
This delicate balance allows him to maneuver around party squabbles without appearing disconnected from the party’s base. In essence, he has become both the shield and the sword thereby, protecting the Oyo state PDP from the prying eyes of the opposition’s relentless criticism while simultaneously driving its political engine forward.
As 2027 approaches, the critical question that is being asked is what happens to the Oyo state PDP when Makinde completes his second term?
Without a clear succession plan, the PDP may find itself vulnerable. The absence of strategic political grooming and integration of new comers could leave a vacuum that opposition parties may exploit. And as I’d often say, “it’s better to be two fighting brothers inside the palace than being friends outside the palace gate.”
The durability of PDP’s dominance in Oyo will therefore, depend on whether Governor Makinde can transition from being the sole custodian of the party’s fortunes to building a more inclusive, ideologically driven, and well-structured party system that would not only be able to unprecedentedly install a successor but also sustain the Makinde’s legacy.
Editor’s Diary is a column dedicated to objective, balanced, and unbiased political analysis in Oyo state and Nigeria.