As the August 16, 2025, by-election for the Ibadan North Federal Constituency draws closer, political analysts and stakeholders are already bracing for what could become a defining moment in the political career of Governor Seyi Makinde and the future of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Oyo State.
The by-election, which was occasioned by the tragic death of Hon. Olaide Akinremi of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has presented more than just a contest for a vacant House of Representatives seat.
It is indeed widely viewed as a referendum on the strength, unity, and grassroots acceptability of the ruling PDP under Makinde’s leadership.
This isn’t the first time the Makinde-led PDP has been subjected to such a political litmus test.
Earlier in the year, the party suffered a shocking defeat in a by-election in Saki West state constituency area of Oke-Ogun axis—an area traditionally considered a PDP stronghold.
That loss has heightened concerns within the party’s ranks and raised fresh concerns over its organizational structure and mobilization capacity across the state.
If the PDP fails again in Ibadan North, a key urban constituency in the heart of the state capital, it could signify a deeper erosion of grassroots support and an emerging disconnect between the government and the electorate.
The implications could reverberate well beyond the by-election itself, potentially affecting PDP’s chances of maintaining control in the 2027 general elections.
Political observers are drawing striking parallels between Governor Makinde’s current situation and that of the late former Governor Abiola Ajimobi in the twilight of his administration. Around 2017, 2018, the APC under the then governor lost several critical by-elections to the PDP.
In 2017, the APC lost a House of Assembly by-election in Igboho to the PDP. The trend continued in 2018 with the emergence of Adebo Ogundoyin, who won the Ibarapa East State Constituency seat in another by-election following the death of the then-lawmaker and former Speaker, Hon. Michael Adeyemo.
These defeats signaled growing dissatisfaction among the electorate and ultimately contributed to APC’s comprehensive loss in the 2019 general elections, despite Ajimobi’s efforts to install a successor.
Ajimobi’s failure to win any by-election during that critical period was a key indicator of his administration’s dwindling influence at the grassroots, and it proved prophetic when the APC lost the governorship to Makinde in 2019, despite the incumbency advantage and federal might.
Governor Makinde now finds himself at a similar crossroads. With the 2027 elections just two years away, the stakes are high. If the PDP fails to reclaim or retain the Ibadan North Federal Constituency, it could be interpreted as a sign of political fatigue among the party’s base.
Also, it could embolden the opposition, particularly the APC, which is already recovering from internal divisions and may capitalize on the PDP’s perceived weaknesses.
For Makinde however, who may be eyeing a national political role or hoping to influence the emergence of his successor in 2027, repeated by-election defeats could diminish his leverage within and outside the party.
Another crucial factor is the level of unity within the PDP. Reports of internal rifts, unresolved grievances leading to defection of a former Ibadan North LG party chairman, and alleged favoritism in candidate selection should also be a factor to address.
This perceived internal acrimony, if left unaddressed, could further alienate key stakeholders and weaken the PDP’s election-day machinery, especially those ‘sitting on the fence’ and kept one leg and the other leg out as a result of perceived poor political benefits.
Makinde must act swiftly to resolve these disputes, rebuild trust among the party’s grassroots operatives, and reinvigorate his political structure. Mobilization efforts must be intensified, and strategic alliances can be re-forged, especially in urban centers like Ibadan North where voter sentiment can swing quickly.
In all, the Ibadan North by-election is more than just a constituency contest; it is a political pressure gauge for Governor Makinde and a mirror reflecting the current state of the PDP in Oyo State.
Just as the losses in Igboho and Ibarapa heralded the decline of APC’s influence in 2019, repeated failures now could signal the twilight of Makinde’s political dominance unless immediate and strategic corrective measures are taken.
For Makinde and the PDP, August 16 is not just another date on the electoral calendar, it could very well be the beginning of a political reckoning, therefore, they must be well guided by political history.